When will the Financial Review get serious?
Wednesday, March 3, 2010
Silly question.
Their front page lead report is sterling cringe causing matter. They confidently declared “though the stimulus has resulted in some mild growth, because of the RBA’s interest rate rise yesterday it should be withdrawn.”
It has not, evidently, occurred to them that if the consumption fallacy were true, another economic ignoramus, Treasurer Wayne Swann, could just as confidently say the Fin Review is very much mistaken. Put it this way, Greece should not be on the brink of collapse; they should be vibrant and becoming even wealthier by the year. If the fallacy were true, France, Germany and Britain shouldn’t be fast approaching what the Greeks now face. In fact -
Forget Europe. Forget Swann and Kevin Rudd. Under States’ Cabinets, all Australians should be doing spiffing well. Who can omit Uber Economist of the World, Peter Costello? How Costello increased Government’s consumption and managed to record a surplus is swiflty explained below (1). Darn, there’s his rival for the Mr. Universe Award, Paul Keating, even the poorest Australian should be a millionaire.
Why, all this ’stimulus”, a man has “gotta” know all Australians must be mega-billionaires. So, why are so many destitute, or facing the high life sleeping under park benches?
It has not occurred to the Financial Review, obviously, the so-called “stimulus” actually erodes capital, arresting what is really needed, its accumulation. They failed to spot the glaring obvious, and let’s step this through:
Inflation, that is monetary expansion by central banks, besides constituting tremendous wealth confiscation and transferring it into the hands of the lucky few, including Treasurers, creates the impression real savings are higher than they are. This dissembling is due to what inflation does, distorts the price signal of interest rates. (2)
There are real market rates of interest rates. Economic laws are real, they can only be ignored at great peril and cannot be defied forever. It has not occurred to the Financial Review that savings may be far, far lower than appears to be the case. Indeed, when Jackson pointed out that an over-valued dollar could be hollowing out Australia’s production structure, in his article showing Professor Sinclair Davidson had got things very wrong on manufacturing, I sat their stunned and transfixed:
Is monetary policy destroying the country’s manufacturing base?
This leaves the possibility the RBA’s rate raise still leaves rates below real market rates and, chillingly, very likely far below. This entails the implication, even though it is a rate rise, the RBA’s rate is still inflationary. To illuminate:
In December last year, Neil Mitchell attacked the head of Westpac, Mr. Peter Hanlon, on radio station 3 AW, over Westpac’s announcement it was raising interest rates independently of the RBA. Neil Mitchell accused Westpac of, to use the pejorative, profiteering, which is funny.
All those whining about profiteering of course themselves seek to profit. Scratch hard leftists, a Tim Costello or a Clive Hamilton and you find a profiteer but these types don’t earn their profits, unlike modest Australians grinding away in production. But I digress.
Mr. Hanlon defended Westpac’s position live on 3 AW in a tense exchange with Neil Mitchell. Hanlon made a singular error. Mitchell re-stated his accusation and Hanlon entered a long explanation, though true, including cost of funds (Westpac’s explanation is here), instead of nailing the falsehood in Mitchell’s accusation. Mind, he nearly did when he stated:
‘There is a great shortage in savings and rates have to be raised to build capital finds. The bank has to do this so modest Australians will do this.’
Just consider this statement alone. This is a banker who stated savings are far lower than assumed and this can only be corrected by rapid accumulation of funds. He did not use the expression, ‘capital funds’, but it is the problem they are struggling with. We know they are struggling with it through other evidence, the sheer number of firms trying to raise them.
Neil Mitchell accidentally drew one correct conclusion. It entails a shift from consumption to savings. Neil Mitchell drew the erroneous conclusion, this hurts consumers. Oh, it does. The pain is real, higher rates on housing loans for instance. This is short term pain. But it is false in the long run because only savings raises living standards. But this misses the real pain:
Malinvestments induced by inflation are being wiped out, on top of strangulation of firms by regulation and taxes and if all this is not enough, further eroded by “stimulus spending”. All will be wiped out with carbon taxes and related measures. Joy in the morning.
Anyway, what Mr. Hanlon should have said to Mr. Neil Mitchell is this:
“Mr. Mitchell, you are calling modest Australians, many whom don’t earn what I earn, nor what you are paid, venal “profiteers” because they rightly expect to earn market rates in return for building savings.
“What you are telling me is this: I should cheat our customers out of their just returns to subsidise the consumption of others.
“To cap it all off, Mr. Mitchell, you are telling me I should impoverish Australians by ensuring the only thing that raises living standards cannot occur, capital accumulation.”
To finish Mitchell off, he need only have added:
“Look Mr. Mitchell, I’m not responsible for this indeed very nasty situation. I do, though, have to correct you severely because you clearly do not understand the matter, and misconceptions are very damaging. Errors means causes won’t be rectified and this has even greater serious force.
“I acknowledge your genuine concern we all share but you are in grave error on the reason for the concern. It is very damaging to mislead Australians on these serious affairs. It’s wrong for anyone in the media to do this and, and, frankly, I’m appalled at the rubbish poured out by what are supposed to be expert commentators in the media.
“I wish everyone was far, far wealthier than they are. It’s due to the RBA and its criminal monetary policies that they are not. They should be hauled over the coals. In the meant-time, let’s tell listeners what you have stated:
“They, modest Asutralians, some of whom happen to be our customers, are vicious because they expect just compensation for building savings which is now urgently needed and the situation is dire.
“You have told Australians, as the head of Westpac I should make it policy to cheat modest Australians. This is offensive. I would be ashamed to even contemplate it. It would never occur to me to do this to mums and dads and youngsters, to anyone.”
If Hanlon had said that, Mitchell would have crumbled and properly, humbly, apologised and, to be sure, Mitchell does do this when he blunders. Unfortunately, with the likes of the Financial Review and the rest of the media commentariat, and the likes of the Institute for Public Affairs, Mitchell has no reason to realise he was nastily wrong.
Unfortunately, bankers don’t have the advisers they need because they have bloody keynesians as their ‘economics experts’ instead. Indeed Westpac’s postion and Hanlon’s reply was framed on the consumption fallacy. Yet, even the reduction absurdum of the fallacy has not even registered inside their skulls, ‘we save in order to spend our way into… what?’
Talk about suicidal, it was suicide committed long ago using keynesians.
“Stimulus”, bah! This is what a stimulus is:
A three year old attaches one end of a wire to the exposed muscle of a dead frog, the other end to a battery, and watches it twitch.
The protean scientist is sound, not the ‘adults’. What separates the Fin Review from the other rags? Price. Being far more expensive than the others, it must be really serious. Which is why I stopped buying it a few weeks after I first bought it back in the early 1980’s. It has maintained its standards ever since. You can tell:
It also promotes the lie of human emissions causes global warming, carbon taxation is necessary, “alternative energy” scams and “government spending sprees are “sound investments:” This is a newspaper for investors and entrepreneurs? They can cut the price by simply producing a 5 page rag -
P.1 The Dick and Dora headline - “look, Jane, see Dick run.” Pp.2-5, The list of yesterday’s stock market results.
It’s hot stuff.
Damned hot. I’m going back into business. I’m going to slay the Fin Review with the 5 page elite bumper newspaper at five cents a copy - Bargain!
I shouldn’t do this – I’m ruddy well not about killing my fledgling newspaper empire but, here’s an antidote to the Fin Review, and the rest of the media:
The US recession and the myth of 1937
Why the US economy could suffer another contraction
Does it make sense to resurrect the Glass-Steagall Act?
The US economy: Why the surge in GDP does not herald a recovery
Footnotes
(1) Peter Costello’s famous surplus
peter Costello increased in real terms Government consumption by a large factor in each of his budgets. According to keynesianism, Australia should be No.1 prosperity land. We should all be so wealthy that, why, all should be luxuriating in the Bahamas.
He could do it and record ’surpluses’ because of monetary expansion. This finally does raise nominal prices, which results in real rises in tax revenues to Treasury, because most taxes are indexed. So long as his increases in Cabinet’s consumption plans were less than the stealth increases in tax, he could record surpluses. So, readers, you can see the problem with a house of a cards.
Costello, Malcolm Turnbull and the rest of the “Opposition” attacked Swann for what the RBA caused, recession. Secondly, the danger of deficit (before the impact of debt-driven spending of Rudd and Swann).
The man was as all Treasurers are, no more than a book-keeper. A bally clerk, who affixed his moniker to budget papers handed him by Treasury. This makes him the Greatest Economist of the Entire Universe! Careful, Peter, the other claimant, Keating, knows how to bury snivellers.
If he was as brainy as some believe he is, he would have taken on the likes fo Mr. Jackson and Dr. Shostak and confronted the heads of the RBA head on, publicly, and driven for the only cure, a return to sound money. Instead, he sat there, sometimes he stood, with that smug grin on his face and poured out more destructive bilge.
(2) Interest Rates
Interest rates are not ‘prices of money’. The price of sound money is given in its basis, a commodity such as gold. A valued good exchangeable for other goods, its properties rendering it suitable for use as money. Real money is generated out of production. It has been interesting to observe those shifting into not only gold but also oil as a defence against debasment of money by central banks.
Interest rates, as Jackson carefully explained in, The nature of interest rates and why it’s dangerous to manipulate them, are the prices of time, given in preferences for present goods and savings. Böhm-Bawerk killed false explanations of interest and founded the theory of interest - the time preference of theory.
“Keynes just could not grasp that interest exists because people value present goods more than future goods (time preference). And so interest determines the supply of and demand for capital goods.”
The rate of interest is established by:
“… the marginal efficiency of capital [expected rate of return] is the rate of interest. This is the natural rate of interest and a price on the time market.”
The rate of interest not only equates supply of capital with demand for it. It is a process that occurs with time, capital goods are allocated over time. Keynes’ account of interest and money totally debases both, reducing them to mere “monetary phenomenon” of “supply and demand for money”.
Credit expansion distorts the natural market rate of interest signal informing entrepreneurs in establishing capital allocation priorities, based on the marginal productivity of capital. Every entrepreneur in planning capital allocation, while not working from economic theory, does exactly this through financial analysis.
Thus, to make explicit, interest rates balances production and consumption with time.