The Great Vote Swindle Continues
January 14th, 2009 by rebellion
Anna Blight on the Body Politic, is being very cagey at the moment, despite the obvious positives in taking to the punters 9 months early. Though really Blind Freddy and his idiot dog can see that she will head to the polls in Late February or March. So what will another trip down election lane bring the once great State of Queensland this time? Will we be foisted with the embarrasment of Anna? Will we stumble over the line with a hung parliament? Or maybe the Borg will take the reins and slowly rid himself of the gigantic piles of deadwood foisted on him by the bastard alliance between Fascist Nationals and Poofta Liberals. Only time will tell, but the fun in elections, as in life, is the prognostication.
Here’s my picks for winners and losers. I have stolen the data from Antony Green’s election site. Antony has done all the hard work for me in analysing the new boundaries and adjusted the relevant swings required to change seats. Apart from these, any other error is completely mine and I eschew all responsibility for it.
2006 ELECTORAL MARGINS – NEW BOUNDARIES
Labor Seats (62)
Woodridge 27.2 ALP Keep though reduced margin
Inala 26.0 ALP Keep though reduced margin
Bundamba 25.2 ALP Keep though reduced margin
Ipswich 21.4 ALP Keep
Logan 21.1 ALP Keep
Rockhampton 19.8 Watch this space, could be a changer. I give it a 50:50 chance of being a surprise during the night
South Brisbane 18.4 ALP Keep
Nudgee 18.2 Interesting one, we will see whether the benefit of having a Billionaire Dad can change this to the LNP column. I give it a 40:60% chance of changing hands
Algester 17.8 ALP Keep
Mackay 17.3 ALP Keep though reduced margin
Thuringowa 16.8 Very Interesting due to residual backlash from Council decision Watch it for the outcome
Lytton 16.3 Rusted on ALP
Waterford 16.2 ALP Keep
Bulimba 16.1 ALP Keep
Sandgate 15.3 Another interesting one depending on certain court cases and timing. Could be very interesting on the night. 50:50 depending on timing
Sunnybank 15.1 ALP Keep
Capalaba 14.8 ALP Keep
Stretton 14.5 ALP Keep though once again reduced margin
Brisbane Central 14.4 ALP Keep
Stafford 14.2 One to watch though should go to ALP
Albert 13.8 Another interesting one though should return ALP member
Pine Rivers 13.3 I predict a swing away from ALP, though it may not be enough to unseat ALP. 60:40 ALP Keep
Yeerongpilly 12.9 ALP Keep
Ipswich West 12.7 Rusted on ALP
Ferny Grove 12.1 ALP Keep, though once again reduced majority
Murrumba 12.1 Major swing from ALP and should be LNP
Cook 11.4 ALP to keep
Greenslopes 11.3 Watch this one, may prove a swinger and tip over to the LNP, I predict ALP to keep, but could go either way
Mount Ommaney 11.3 Another to watch, though should stay in ALP hands
Mundingburra 11.1 The big question mark seat. Does it come back to the mighty midget party or Stay in ALP Hands. I predict ALP hold
Kallangur 11.0 Residual Council amalgamation anger may tip this to the LNP seat.
Morayfield 10.7 ALP Keep
Everton 10.6 This could be the big mover. Retiring member and solid suburban electorate. May go to LNP , give it 40:60 LNP win
Mount Coot-tha 10.4 ALP Keep
Mulgrave 9.8 ALP Keep, though nailbiter
Townsville 9.4 ALP Keep
Burleigh 8.8 LNP pick up
Ashgrove 8.5 ALP Keep
Mount Isa 8.5 ALP Keep 60:40 could swing far enough away especially considering the current furore over flood response
Mansfield 8.4 ALP Keep
Coomera 8.3 ALP Keep
Keppel 8.1 ALP Keep (Just)
Cairns 8.0 ALP Keep
Southport 8.0 ALP Keep
Toowoomba North 7.6 Loss to LNP
Redlands 6.8 ALP Keep
Broadwater 6.6 Loss to LNP (canal folk are over their flirtation with an utterly useless pretty little girl)
Redcliffe 6.0 Another to watch with residual concern over council amalgamation. I predict an LNP pick up
Springwood 5.7 ALP to keep
Pumicestone 5.4 Loss to LNP
Barron River 4.8 ALP to Keep
Gaven 3.2 Loss to LNP
Aspley 3.1 Loss to LNP
Indooroopilly 2.7 Loss to LNP
Mudgeeraba 2.7 Loss to LNP (though few days to get it, down to preferences)
Hervey Bay 2.1 Loss to LNP
Cleveland 1.3 Loss to LNP
- Mirani
1.2 LNP seat
- Burdekin
0.9 LNP Win
Whitsunday 0.4 LNP seat (depending on if the Fisherfolk party get involved.
- Clayfield
0.2 LNP seat remains
Chatsworth 0.1 LNP pick up
Liberal NationalSeats (23)
Warrego 22.7 LNP Solid
Gympie 22.0 LNP Solid
Callide 20.4 LNP Keep
Southern Downs 20.4 LNP Keep
Condamine 18.6 LNP Keep
Surfers Paradise 12.1 LNP Keep
Gregory 12.0 Solid LNP
Toowoomba South 11.3 Increased LNP Majority
Buderim 9.3 LNP Hold, but may be interesting
Maroochydore 8.4 LNP Hold
Moggill 8.0 LNP Hold, mores the pity.
Burnett 7.4 Hold for LNP
Noosa 7.4 Solid Hold for LNP
Beaudesert 5.9 Hold for LNP, though could be one to watch with retiring long time member
Dalrymple 7.7 Hold for LNP
Lockyer 3.4 Increased Majority and held for LNP
Mermaid Beach 2.8 Should stay with LNP, though one to watch
Kawana 2.6 Could be a sleeper and watch for change on election night. Loss to ALP
Currumbin 2.2 LNP to Hold
Hinchinbrook 2.0 LNP to Hold
Caloundra 1.9 LNP to increase majority dramatically
Bundaberg 1.0 LNP to solidly hold
- Glass House
0.1 Solid gain for LNP
Independent Seats (4)
Maryborough (IND v ALP) * IND to hold
Nicklin (IND v NAT) * Strong Hold to IND
Nanango (IND v NAT) * LNP to win
Gladstone (IND v ALP) 2.0 Watch this one, could be an ALP pick up
- Underlining
indicates electorates that notionally change party status on the new boundaries.
* - estimated two-candidate preferred margin was not able to be calculated for Maryborough, Nanango and Nicklin.
Once again, with thanks to Antony Green for doing all the hard work so I only had to cruise along and put my two cents worth in.
So what does all this mean? Well by my reckoning, the state of play after the election will be ALP 42 seats LNP 45 and IND 2. Naturally I have hedged my bets on quite a few, though feel free to put your own score up.
